Illicit Thai Cigarettes: No Positive Signs?

Reports of illicit cigarette seizures continue to appear in media, with piles of cigarette packs and various vehicles intercepted by officials becoming a routine sight. The reality is that tax-evading cigarettes are easily purchased both in stores and online, from small community shops to underground networks. Many smokers know these are illegal products but willingly buy them due to significantly lower prices. Throughout recent years, the Thai government has invested considerable efforts to block smuggling and sales of illicit cigarettes. However, the market scene appears largely unchanged. The critical question is not whether the government is trying hard enough, but whether these efforts are addressing the root of the problem. The Thailand Tobacco Control Page thanked the government for starting serious crackdown efforts in 2025. However, they urged the new government to continue prevention and suppression measures, tracing the issue to its source and permanently disrupting the illicit cigarette trade. This is crucial as illegal cigarette volumes in Thailand remain high and directly impact tobacco farmers and legitimate taxpaying merchants. The numbers don't lie: One in four cigarettes is illicit. According to the Empty Packs Survey (EPS) Thailand for Q3 2025, untaxed cigarette consumption represents 24.9% of the market - nearly one-quarter of total sales. While this is down from 28.1% earlier in 2025, it remains nearly unchanged from the previous year's 25.4%. A concerning aspect is the origin of these illicit cigarettes. The survey found that 19.6% of samples have an 'unspecified source', even higher than cigarettes from neighboring countries' duty-free shops. This reflects systemic inspection gaps and potential lack of official transparency that enables easy smuggling. Hotspots for illicit cigarettes include border provinces like Satun, Phatthalung, and Songkhla, with untaxed cigarette consumption rates of 87%, 70.3%, and 67.8% respectively. These areas share proximity to neighboring country borders and serve as transit routes, reflecting deeply embedded economic smuggling structures. Regional perspective matters: A New Straits Times report highlights that illegal cigarette trade is a structural challenge across ASEAN. Research warns that Southeast Asian governments could lose over $11 billion in tobacco tax revenues within the next three years due to illegal trade.