AI Boom, Foreign Capital Lift Thai Stocks to 1,619 Target

Thailand's Investment Analysts Association released findings from 25 firms showing a broadly positive outlook on Thailand's economy and capital markets for the second half of 2025. Growth drivers include government stimulus, domestic consumption recovery, infrastructure investment, and artificial intelligence and data center technology, which analysts see as critical market boosters. The survey upgraded Thailand's average 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.93% from 1.72% previously, within a range of 1.5-2.7%, assuming crude oil at $84.80 per barrel and a risk-free rate of 2.11%.

Analysts weighted foreign capital inflows as the strongest positive factor, cited by 92% of respondents, followed by AI technology investment at 88%. Resolution of U.S.-Iran-Israel tensions was seen as beneficial for regional capital flows by 80%. On downside risks, 68% flagged potential changes to major central bank policies and quantitative easing, while 56% cited U.S. interest rate direction.

All analysts expect Thailand's policy rate to hold at 1% through year-end. Projected 2025 earnings per share rose to 96.04 baht from 87.64 baht previously, with expected 10.2% EPS growth. The SET Index is forecast to close third quarter at 1,608 points within a 1,496-1,655 range, with year-end target of 1,619 points. Money is increasingly rotating from AI stocks into undervalued Thai shares, as the market remains attractively priced amid improving economic fundamentals.