No Clear Winner Yet – Thaksin and Pheu Thai: Getting Closer or Staying Apart?
Thaksin Shinawatra was released to home confinement on May 11 but has maintained a low profile, declining visitors and avoiding public appearances while serving out four months of probation conditions. High-ranking Pheu Thai officials notab
Since May 11, when Thaksin Shinawatra walked out of the Central Prison at Khlong Prem to serve the remainder of his sentence under home confinement at his Sansiri residence, the story has dominated both Thai and international media. Since then, Thaksin has made no public appearances. The following day, he underwent a health check at Rama 9 Hospital with reports indicating he was in perfect health, though no photos were released.
Meanwhile, television and online commentators have been enthusiastically debating Thaksin's likely intentions – whether he'll reclaim the Thai Pride Party, shake up Thai politics, or push Pheu Thai to break with the government, or whether old enemies will seek to eliminate him or drive him from politics altogether.
In reality, when asked questions upon his release, Thaksin simply replied, "I was in monastic discipline for eight months and can't remember anything," signaling he won't discuss his prison experience. His subsequent low profile is partly due to the remaining four months of probation conditions that require him to keep a low profile.
Multiple high-profile political figures have reportedly requested to visit him, but he declined, asking to spend time with family first and not receive outside guests.
At minimum, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul gave an interview expressing his happiness at Thaksin's release, mentioning he may have a chance to visit as he respects his former commanding officer. The relationship between the blue and red factions, combined with Pheu Thai's recent struggles in late 2024, means Anutin's stance toward Thaksin bears close watching. For now, however, there are no scheduled meetings.
Notably, none of the current Pheu Thai deputies prime minister or cabinet ministers appeared when Thaksin was released. Only party members without official positions like Pumtham Wechayachai, Jaturon Chayaetaeng, and Chusak Sirinil greeted him. There was no sign of Yotchanan Wongwatdisai or Julapun Amornvivat. This indicates a carefully calculated approach to prevent any friction or criticism between Thaksin and current Pheu Thai leadership.
The saying goes: sitting too close isn't good, sitting too far apart isn't good either. You need just the right distance. Some commentators are already forecasting that Thaksin will return to lead and dominate the party.
