Office of Fiscal Policy Points to Continuous Export Growth for 21 Months, Supporting Private Consumption Recovery
Thailand's exports grew for the 21st straight month in March 2025, supporting economic recovery despite weakening tourism and consumer confidence pressured by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
The Office of Fiscal Policy, headed by Winit Wisetsuwannaphum, revealed that Thailand's economic and fiscal conditions in March 2025 are being supported by continuous export growth marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion, coinciding with improved private consumption in durable goods, though the tourism sector has slowed from the previous month. Authorities are monitoring oil prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could impact Thai manufacturing supply chains.
Private consumption indicators show improvement compared to the same period last year, particularly in durable goods consumption. New car registrations increased 16.6% year-on-year and 17.5% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, while motorcycle registrations rose 6.8% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment. However, consumer confidence declined to 51.8 from 53.7 the previous month, pressured by concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as rising global oil prices that threaten household living costs. Farmers' real income fell by 4.1%.
Private investment indicators improved from the previous month, with private sector investment in machinery and equipment reflected in capital goods imports increasing 23.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
Export values expanded year-on-year, reaching $35,157.1 million in March, marking the 21st consecutive month of growth at 18.7%. Excluding oil and gold-related products, exports grew 19.3%, driven by electronics expanding 43.8%, minerals and fuels up 26.6%, and electrical appliances up 14.3%. By market, exports to India surged 140.6%, Australia grew 56.2%, the US expanded 41.9%, and ASEAN (5) increased 25.0%, though Middle Eastern markets declined 57.1% and China fell 1.1%.
On the supply side, tourism from foreign visitors grew at a decelerating rate, with 2.78 million international arrivals, up 2.0% year-on-year but down 5.2% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment. Domestic tourism recorded 22.6 million visitors, increasing 0.4% year-on-year but declining 1.6% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment. The agricultural sector, reflected in the agricultural output index, expanded 0.8% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, driven by increases in rubber, corn, palm oil, and fruit production, though rice and cassava output fell.
