Kasikorn Research Upgrades GDP Forecast to 1.9% - Predicts Export Turnaround of 1.6%

Kasikorn Research Thai revealed that Thailand's economic growth in Q4/2026 accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year and reversed growth to 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, successfully avoiding a technical recession. The full year 2026 economic growth is projected at 2.4%, higher than the previous 2.0% forecast. Key highlights include: • Accelerated vehicle purchases before EV 3.0 measures expire • Government stimulus supporting private consumption growth of 3.3% year-on-year • Private investment grew 6.5% year-on-year, with private construction expanding for the first time in 7 quarters • Industrial output rebounding, supported by exports and domestic consumption • Exports growing, led by electronics, though imports increased faster Kasikorn Research revised 2027 GDP forecast upward from 1.6% to 1.9%, driven by better-than-expected private investment momentum and export projections.