Alarm Raised! Rice Exports Plummet 40% as Indonesia Bans Imports and Philippines Increases Taxes

Chookiat Opas, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, revealed that rice exports are experiencing extreme volatility and stagnation. Competition is intense, with Vietnamese rice priced 40-50 USD per ton cheaper than Thai rice. Indonesia, a major global rice importer, has banned all rice imports in the past month, expanding from its previous white rice import restrictions. Philippines has announced an import tax increase from 15% to 20%, effective January 1, 2026, to protect local farmers and manage peso currency fluctuations. India, another major rice producer, is preparing to release approximately 20 million tons of rice stock into the market. The continuous strengthening of the Thai baht further complicates export competitiveness. Exports are expected to drop to around 500,000 tons per month, down from the typical 650,000-700,000 tons, potentially resulting in total annual exports of just 7 million tons compared to last year's 7.9 million tons. The new government is urged to manage currency value and help reduce farmer production costs by developing high-yield rice varieties.