Bangk Krung Sri Prepares to Adjust Thailand's GDP Growth Forecast for 2026

Krung Sri Ayudhya Bank reported Thailand's Q4/2025 economic growth at 2.5%, increasing its positive outlook for 2026 from the previous 1.8% forecast, assuming improved political stability. On February 17, Krung Sri Research analyzed key US employment figures from January, which were better than market expectations, suggesting the US Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates in the near term. The overall labor market shows signs of slowing, with job vacancy-to-unemployment ratios dropping to their lowest level since February 2021, and hourly wages decelerating the most in 18 months. Meanwhile, inflation has slowed to an 8-month low of 2.4% year-on-year. For Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Council reported Q4 GDP growth of 2.5%, exceeding previous market expectations. The growth was primarily driven by increased consumer spending and both public and private sector investments, though export performance was slower. The agency has adjusted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2.5%, up from the previous 1.2-2.2% projection.