Q4 Stimulus Comes at the Right Time, Pushing Annual Growth Beyond Expectations

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, Chief Economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, revealed via his personal Facebook that the Q4 2025 GDP stimulus was perfectly timed but challenging going forward. The National Economic and Social Development Council reported Q4 GDP growth at 2.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous quarter's 1.2% and significantly above expectations. The annual GDP reached 2.4%, exceeding most estimates of 2.0-2.2%. The primary driver was investment, with the government accelerating budget expenditure aggressively. Public investment surged 13.3%, supporting the construction sector's 11.2% expansion. Private investment grew 6.5%, driven by machinery and equipment imports and pending investment projects, especially data centers. Consumption grew 3.3%, partly due to EV purchases before policy changes. While the government successfully prevented economic collapse, Pipat emphasized the need for major structural economic reforms. This includes attracting new international investments, improving government efficiency, expanding the tax base, and reducing bureaucratic obstacles. Comparing regional performance, Pipat noted Thailand's growth looks modest alongside neighbors like Taiwan (12%), Vietnam (8%), and Singapore (6.9%), signaling the urgent need for comprehensive economic transformation.