Finance Ministry Forecasts 1.6% Thai Economic Growth in 2026, Supported by Exports and Consumption
Thailand's economy is projected to grow 1.6% in 2026, driven by strong exports at 6.2% and domestic consumption increases of 2.3%, though external risks including Middle East tensions and drought could pose headwinds.
The Office of Fiscal Policy (OFP) announced Thailand's economic forecast for 2026, projecting gradual recovery with growth of 1.6% fueled by strong domestic demand, featuring private consumption growth of 2.3% and private investment growth of 3.2%, while merchandise exports are expected to expand 6.2%. Risk factors requiring attention include Middle East tensions, drought, and elevated household debt.
Vinij Wisesuwarnnaphumi, Director of the Office of Fiscal Policy, stated that Thailand's 2026 economy is on a gradual recovery trajectory, though facing headwinds from external factors and global geopolitics. The Finance Ministry is prepared to implement proactive policies to maintain growth momentum while accelerating economic restructuring to enhance long-term competitiveness.
The projected 1.6% growth (forecast range 1.1% to 2.1%) is primarily supported by both domestic and external demand. Export values in US dollars are expected to grow 6.2%, benefiting from recovering demand from major trading partners and sustained strong export signals since the first quarter, particularly in industries rebounding with global economic cycles. Import values are projected to rise 13.9%, reflecting industrial production trends as businesses accelerate imports of capital goods and raw materials to support expected private investment expansion and export-oriented manufacturing, alongside rising energy import prices.
Domestic demand shows strong expansion as a key economic driver. Private consumption is forecast to continue growing at 2.3%, supported by tourism sector recovery distributing income to grassroots levels and government cost-of-living relief measures strengthening household purchasing power. Private investment is projected to expand 3.2%, driven by increased investment promotion applications, continuous monitoring and acceleration of actual investment, Thailand FastPass implementation, and removal of key investor obstacles, particularly in targeted industries (New S-Curve) and foreign investor confidence in Thailand as a production base.
The public sector will play a key role in supporting economic growth, with government consumption forecast to expand 1.3% and government investment projected at 1.7%, resulting from fiscal year 2570 budget expected completion on schedule, ensuring continuous money circulation. Major infrastructure mega-projects will enhance competitiveness and attract private investment through crowding-in effects.
State enterprise investment shows strong continued disbursement, with first-half fiscal year 2569 reaching 117 billion baht at approximately 50% disbursement rate, higher than the same period previously.
