Thai Chamber Forecasts 3% GDP Growth on Export and Tourism Rebound
Thailand's economy is projected to grow 2-3% next year, driven by rebounding tourism and a shift toward high-tech exports in sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. The Thai Chamber of Commerce notes that tourism could a
The Thai Chamber of Commerce projects Thailand's GDP will expand 2-3% in 2570, supported by strong investment flows and a shift toward high-tech exports. Investment through the Board of Investment has maintained levels exceeding 100 billion baht annually over three consecutive years from 2567-2569, with China and Singapore leading investments in electric vehicles and artificial intelligence sectors that reflect global trends. Thailand is restructuring its export base toward high-tech products, with exports expected to grow 5.4-9.4% next year.
The tourism sector is anticipated to recover, with 32-35 million foreign tourists generating 1.6-1.69 trillion baht in revenue, buoyed by returning Chinese visitors. Dubai crude oil prices are forecast to remain at 80-85 USD per barrel.
Thanawat Phalvichai, rector and chairman of the Thai Chamber's economics and business forecasting centre, expects GDP growth to accelerate from the first quarter onward. The Bank of Thailand is preparing three measures to address SME credit shortages: the SME Credit Portal to connect entrepreneurs with financial institutions, a new credit guarantee mechanism, and a Data Bureau to improve SME access to credit. The government is also restructuring energy policy to support residential solar panel installation.
However, risks remain, including potential impacts from US Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity, household debt at 84.2% of GDP, and Middle East tensions that could drive oil prices higher. The Thai Chamber has revised its midpoint GDP forecast for this year from 2% to 2.5%, anticipating exports could reach 17.8% growth driven by AI products. Inventory accumulation in the second quarter this year represents 8.3% of GDP, the highest in six quarters, while private investment is expanding 13.4% and accelerating for the fifth consecutive quarter.
