Thailand Raises 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 2% on Tech Exports, AI Investment
Thailand raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.6-2% driven by surging technology exports and AI investments, with exports now projected to grow 8-10% after earlier contraction predictions.
Payong Srivannich, chairman of the Thai Bankers Association and head of the three-institution joint private-sector committee, announced that the committee has revised Thailand's 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.6-2% from the previous 1.2-1.6%. Export growth is now projected at 8-10%, a dramatic reversal from the earlier forecast of a 0.5-1.5% contraction, while inflation is estimated at 2.5-3% compared to the prior 2-3% estimate.
The upgrade stems from stronger-than-anticipated export and investment recovery, particularly in technology products benefiting from the global AI investment wave. Thai exports in the first half of this year grew 17.6% year-on-year, with technology products—accounting for 26.5% of total exports—surging 45.9%.
Payong noted that the global economy faces high uncertainty in the second half of 2025 from Middle East tensions, energy price pressures, inflation, and unclear global interest rate trajectories. However, the world economy is expanding in a K-shaped pattern, with countries leveraging digital and AI advantages, including Thailand, positioned for stronger growth than energy-import-dependent nations.
The committee concluded that Thailand must accelerate technology-sector growth by increasing domestic value addition through higher local content ratios, building domestic supply chains, and developing a workforce suited to new investment. Greater linkage between government and private data will improve economic policymaking precision.
The private sector has pledged support for five new government investment strategies: Investment & Industry Transformation Hub, AI & Digital Hub, Green Economy, Financial Hub, and Medical Hub—mechanisms to attract foreign direct investment. ASEAN-bound FDI is projected to exceed $544 billion by 2025, with Thailand remaining a key target. Investment promotion requests through the Board of Investment in the first half reached 1.47 trillion baht, a 37% year-on-year increase, positioning Thailand for structural economic reform and stronger long-term growth.
