Globlex Sets Thai Stock Market Range at 1,470-1,545 Points in May; Recommends Accumulating Retail Stocks Amid 'Thailand Helping Thailand Plus' Stimulus

Globlex Securities (GBS) projects the Thai stock index will experience volatility within the 1,470-1,545 point range throughout May 2025, driven by Middle East tensions particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty in US-Iran peace negotiations, which continue to create global investment uncertainty and oil price volatility. However, Thailand is positioning itself as an attractive safe haven, with Moody's rating the country as better prepared than many emerging markets to withstand future global economic shocks, reflecting improved risk balance for the Thai economy.

Domestically, optimism is bolstered by a revised GDP growth forecast from the Bank of Thailand following the government's authorization of a 400 billion baht borrowing decree, raising 2025 GDP growth estimates to 2.1% from 1.5%, while 2026 projections are lowered to 1.6% from 2% due to high base effects. Global markets remain supported by strong performance from Wall Street's technology and AI sectors, which drove S&P 500 profits to multi-year highs, while a US trade court ruling partially invalidating tariffs provides additional tailwinds to global trade.

Key domestic events investors should monitor this month include May 15 (first quarter 2025 financial statement deadline), mid-May investor confidence surveys, May 18 (Q1 2025 GDP announcement), the third week (automotive production and export figures), May 29 (Bank of Thailand economic report), and late May releases from the Commerce Ministry on international trade and various economic indices. Internationally, China's April consumer and producer price indices on May 11 will provide important economic signals during this volatile period.