Bualuang Sees SET Reaching 1,650 Points This Year
Bualuang Securities reports the Thai SET index surged 23% in the first nine months of 2026, driven by electronics and infrastructure investment. The firm sees potential for the index to reach 1,600–1,650 points by year-end if geopolitical risks ease, with a 2027 target of 1,710. It recommends a Barbell Strategy focusing on ten stocks including PTT, GULF, and major banks to capture long-term growth.
Bualuang Securities evaluated the Thai stock market for the first nine months of 2026, during which the SET index jumped a notable 23%. The gains were driven by two main factors: the global technology cycle, which lifted electronics stocks more than 50% from the start of the year and attracted direct foreign investment into the data center ecosystem; and the domestic investment cycle, bolstered by progress in power infrastructure investment, the new Power Development Plan (PDP), transmission line development, and the expansion of solar rooftop installations, benefiting power producers and construction contractors.
Meanwhile, a recovering global manufacturing sector supported "Global Play" stocks across energy, petrochemicals, packaging, and electronics — sectors accounting for roughly one-third of listed companies' combined profits. This made 2026 the first year in many to see a 17% upward revision in aggregate earnings forecasts from the beginning of the year, with earnings per share (EPS) expected at 113 baht, up 30% year-on-year.
Foreign investors returned as net buyers of about 25 billion baht in the first nine months, reversing last year's net selling of roughly 110 billion baht. However, selling pressure emerged in September amid lingering war concerns and elevated U.S. Treasury yields pressuring risk assets.
BLS Wealth Research notes the domestic recovery remains K-shaped: exports and private investment continue to expand, while domestic consumption faces headwinds from high household debt (around 86% of GDP), diesel prices near 43 baht per liter, and flood impacts. The tourism sector saw foreign arrivals drop about 4% year-on-year in the first nine months, though a 4% rise in average spending per visitor kept revenue near year-ago levels.
Flood damage is assessed as limited, likely shaving less than 0.1% off GDP and less than 2% off listed corporate profits, with only modest effects on retail, commercial banks, and finance firms from asset quality and provisioning risks.
The fourth-quarter outlook still carries geopolitical risks that could keep oil prices and bond yields high, pressuring risk assets and domestic living costs amid the K-shaped economy. However, ongoing investment in power infrastructure and data centers means Thailand remains in an investment cycle through the fourth quarter and into 2027, providing underlying support.
