Thai Stock Market Poised For Further 10% Gains
Thailand's stock market could gain another 10% or more over the next year, driven by global economic strength, controlled inflation, increased foreign investment in manufacturing, and recovering corporate earnings, according to a top securi
The chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations said the Thai stock market has rebounded strongly from 1,250 points to above 1,600 points earlier this year, but the uptrend is far from over, citing five factors that could drive another 10% or greater gains over the next 12 months.
Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chief executive of Tisco Securities and chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations, shared his positive outlook on Facebook, noting that the SET index has climbed nearly 30% since the start of the year and is now outperforming global and emerging markets.
The five supporting factors are: First, the global economy is stronger than expected. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade friction, the International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with corporate profits continuing to grow worldwide, driven significantly by investment in the AI ecosystem.
Second, global inflation remains controlled. Although energy prices have risen due to Middle East tensions, inflationary pressure is not as severe as in 2022–2023, allowing major central banks to avoid aggressive interest rate hikes—a supportive environment for equities.
Third, Thailand stands to benefit from manufacturing relocation and global supply chain restructuring. Thailand's geographic position, political neutrality, and infrastructure give it a competitive edge in attracting foreign direct investment in emerging industries. Foreign direct investment in AI, data centers, semiconductors, and electric vehicles has increased significantly, with FDI promotion applications in the first half of 2025 nearly matching the entire 2024 total of 1.36 trillion baht. If this translates into sustained real investment, it will provide a new growth engine and lift Thailand's long-term economic potential.
Fourth, the Thai economy is laying the foundation for a new growth cycle. Though structural challenges remain—high household debt, an aging society, weak competitiveness, and low productivity—the government is taking action to address these issues and create new growth drivers, particularly in AI infrastructure, the digital economy, and future industries. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Thai GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. While not high, if sustained new investment materializes, the economy could return to 3% or higher growth sustainably.
Fifth, corporate earnings and market fundamentals are recovering. Bloomberg Consensus forecasts SET earnings per share will rise from 80.8 baht in 2024 to 106 baht in 2025 and 114 baht in 2026. The SET is trading at approximately 14.8 times forward price-to-earnings, or 12.6 times excluding Delta, which is not expensive compared to other regional markets. Additionally, 61% of Thai listed companies are still trading below book value, indicating that market recovery has not spread across all companies. Foreign investors are beginning to return as net buyers after selling Thai stocks for several years, suggesting that fund flows could return to the market.
Paiboon noted that in the long term, the Jump+ program and Corporate Value Up Program will help improve the quality and value of Thai listed companies. However, the market must still navigate volatility from geopolitical risks, trade wars, inflation, and U.S. interest rate direction. Domestic risks remain centered on politics; if investors lose confidence in government stability, it could shock the Thai stock market.
