Gold Prices Remain Volatile and Directionless as GCAP GOLD Unveils Investment Strategy

On April 30, 2025, Areeratana Murarchai, head analyst at GCAP GOLD, revealed that gold prices are trending toward high volatility this week, with Middle East peace negotiations being a critical factor to monitor closely. Volatility intensified after President Donald Trump announced cancellation of U.S. delegation talks with Iran regarding a ceasefire agreement in Pakistan, adding a hardline stance with the comment "If they want to talk, just call." Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman clearly stated there are no plans for direct negotiations. However, recent reports indicate Iran has submitted a new proposal through intermediaries, suggesting both sides end the conflict and focus on resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis by having the U.S. lift its maritime blockade against Iran before returning to nuclear discussions later. Despite no clear conclusion yet, uncertainty remains high. This directly impacts gold prices because progress in negotiations would reduce safe-asset buying pressure, potentially triggering short-term profit-taking sales. Oil prices may decline, reducing inflation pressure and shifting market focus toward Federal Reserve interest rate direction. Gold is expected to remain volatile in line with international political news developments, with investors advised to be cautious of rapid-fire geopolitical updates. Another critical factor is the Federal Reserve meeting on April 29, with markets assigning a 99.5% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. Investors should also watch Jerome Powell's statements regarding his future role and policy outlook for the latter half of the year, as well as confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, which could represent a significant shift in monetary policy. Analysts noted that gold shows short-term rebound signals but structurally isn't in a full uptrend yet—it's merely testing resistance during a base-building phase. If prices sustain above $4,650, they could test next resistance at $4,680-$4,700. However, if prices fail to break through these resistance levels and drop below $4,550, investors should watch for renewed selling pressure. For Thai gold investment strategy, analysts recommend "waiting for price pullbacks" to accumulate around 70,000-69,500 baht, and "taking profits in stages" if prices cannot break through 72,000-72,500 baht.