Huaseng Heng: Gold Price Adjustment Signals Trend Change or Just a Pause?
Gold prices have fallen near $4,450 amid selling pressure from rising inflation, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar, with analysts debating whether the decline signals a trend reversal or temporary consolidation. The 200-day movi
Huaseng Heng has been monitoring gold's significant price adjustment, questioning whether it signals a trend change or just a temporary pause. The 200-day moving average (SMA200) will determine the fate of the long-term uptrend.
Huaseng Heng's analysis shows that global gold prices have faced continuous selling pressure after declining to near $4,450 per ounce, creating investor concerns about the direction of the next trend.
Amid mounting inflationary pressures, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain tight monetary policy longer than market expectations, the precious metal faces headwinds. Although Middle East tensions remain a significant risk factor for the global economy, markets are increasingly interpreting the geopolitical conflict through an inflationary lens rather than viewing it as a safe-haven asset driver. Rising energy prices from geopolitical uncertainty have increased inflation pressure and affected interest rate policy expectations.
Recent economic data clearly reflects these pressures, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.8% year-over-year in April, up from 3.3% in March—the highest level since 2023. This has renewed market concerns that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts and maintain rates at elevated levels.
These pressures are reflected in the U.S. Treasury market, with 10-year yields touching their highest level in over a year, while 30-year yields reached 5.19%, the highest since 2007. This reflects investors' demand for higher returns to compensate for inflation risk and economic uncertainty.
Higher Treasury yields directly increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, as gold is a non-interest-bearing asset.
Simultaneously, the dollar's strength—supported by Fed meeting minutes indicating that some Fed members are opening the door to potential rate hikes—continues to pressure global gold demand.
Global financial institutions have begun revising their short-term gold price forecasts downward. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has lowered its average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, while ANZ Bank revised its year-end gold target to $5,600 per ounce, citing inflation, interest rates, and the dollar as primary headwinds.
However, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on gold, forecasting prices could reach $5,400 per ounce by year-end, supported by continued central bank purchases aimed at diversifying international reserves. This aligns with World Gold Council data showing multiple central banks continue accumulating gold in 2026.
Huaseng Heng assesses that gold's current price correction does not signal a complete shift to a bear market, but rather a consolidation under macroeconomic pressure, particularly from accelerating inflation and elevated interest rates.
Technically, the $4,370 per ounce level, corresponding to the 200-day moving average (SMA200), remains a critical support level to monitor closely, as it reflects the structure of the long-term uptrend.
If gold prices can hold above this level, it will indicate that the primary trend remains unchanged and the current pullback may be merely a base consolidation before the next leg up.
