NESDB Reveals Q1 GDP Growth Accelerates to 2.8%, Projects 2% Growth for Full Year
Thailand's economy accelerated to 2.8% growth in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in private investment and exports, though the country posted its first trade deficit in 14 quarters. The government projects 2% full-year growth but warns elevated
May 18, 2025 — Danuda Pitchyanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), announced that Thailand's economy expanded 2.8% in Q1 2025, accelerating from 2.5% growth in Q4 2024.
The main growth driver was total investment expansion of 9.9%, the highest quarterly rate in 44 quarters since 2015, particularly private sector investment growth of 10.1% focused on machinery, equipment, and vehicle purchases.
Exports accelerated to 17.8% growth worth $95.096 billion, driven by electronics and electrical appliances aligned with global market demand. However, imports surged 33.1%, resulting in Thailand's first trade deficit in 14 quarters.
The tourism sector continued its expansion with total revenue of 759 billion baht, up 3.8%, welcoming 9.317 million foreign visitors.
Agricultural production grew 1.2% from increased yields of durian, mangosteen, and palm oil, but farmers' overall income declined 6.3% due to falling prices for rubber, pork, and rice.
On economic stability, unemployment stands at 0.91%, while public debt as of March 2025 reached 12.68 trillion baht, or 66.38% of GDP.
Pitchyanan projected full-year 2025 GDP growth of 1.5-2.5% with a midpoint of 2.0%, supported by continued consumption and private investment, plus increased government spending. Average inflation is now forecast at 2-3% with a midpoint of 2.5%, revised upward from the previous negative forecast of -0.3% to 0.7%.
"Our GDP projections already factor in the impact of Middle East tensions, including the 400 billion baht borrowing decree aimed at supporting cost of living and energy transition," Pitchyanan said. "While we expect the conflict to end mid-year, oil prices are expected to remain elevated, continuing to pressure inflation and living costs. The government must accelerate measures to protect household finances going forward."
