Thailand Raises GDP Growth Target to 2.5%
Thailand's Ministry of Finance raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 1.6%, citing strong export demand and increased investment driving economic expansion.
The Ministry of Finance has raised Thailand's 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.5 percent, up from an April projection of 1.6 percent, citing strong export demand and accelerated investment. Finance Ministry spokesman Winit Wisetsuwannaphum attributed the upgrade to sustained export growth, increased public and private investment, and rising private consumption supported by government economic policies.
Export values in US dollars are projected to expand 12.5 percent, nearly double the previous 6.2 percent forecast, driven by improved demand from major trading partners. The first five months of 2025 saw consecutive export growth averaging 10.9 percent, particularly in industries recovering with global economic cycles. Imports are expected to rise 19 percent as private sector investment acceleration drives increased machinery, equipment, and capital goods purchases, along with higher energy import prices in the second quarter.
Private consumption is forecast to grow 2.7 percent while private investment is expected to expand 9 percent, supported by machinery investments and capital inflows into promoted sectors under the New S-Curve targeting and Thailand FastPass measures. These initiatives have boosted foreign investor confidence, resulting in foreign direct investment of 187 billion baht in the first half of 2025—68.3 percent higher than the same period last year—supporting domestic manufacturing base expansion.
Government consumption is projected to grow 1.5 percent while public investment is expected to expand 3.2 percent, supported by timely fiscal year 2026 budget completion and mega infrastructure projects that will enhance competitiveness and attract private investment. Inflation is forecast at 2 percent annually, with crude oil averaging 82 dollars per barrel (range of 77-87 dollars), down from the previous 91-dollar estimate. The current account is expected to show a small deficit of 0.5 billion dollars, or negative 0.1 percent of GDP, primarily from first-half deficits.
