Thailand's Housing Market Drowning in 610,000 Unsold Units
Thailand's housing market faces severe oversupply with 610,000 unsold residential units nationwide, nearly double typical transfer volumes, as second-hand home sales surge while buyer demand weakens amid economic uncertainty.
Kasikornbank Research Center predicts Thailand's housing market will remain oversupplied in 2025, with over 610,000 accumulated unsold residential units nationwide—nearly double typical property transfer volumes—driven largely by accelerating second-hand home sales. The residential market faces a supply-demand imbalance as unsold inventory climbs while buyer demand weakens with no clear recovery signs.
Currently, unsold inventory is nearly twice the average property transfer rate, intensifying market competition and giving consumers more purchasing power. However, economic volatility and fragile consumer spending power present headwinds for real estate developers' marketing strategies, sales figures, and profitability.
In the first quarter of 2025, nationwide unsold units reached 590,000, a 7% year-on-year increase driven by second-hand listings. Second-hand homes for sale totaled 240,000 units, up 34% year-on-year, as individuals, financial institutions, and asset managers offload properties. Meanwhile, new residential units in developers' portfolios declined slightly to 350,000 units, down 6% year-on-year, as developers delayed new project launches.
Over 52% of unsold inventory sits in Bangkok and surrounding areas, totaling over 310,000 units. Economic hub provinces like Chon Buri, Phuket, and Chiang Mai also saw increases in both new and second-hand unsold inventory. Over 60% of unsold units are priced below 3 million baht, totaling 355,000 units. Notably, units priced above 10 million baht surged 48% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 46,000 units, driven primarily by second-hand properties.
Developers face narrowing investment options as they increasingly target the luxury segment to avoid competition in lower price ranges. Kasikornbank Research remains cautious about the market outlook for the second half of 2025. While positive factors include extended transfer fee reductions and mortgage incentives for properties under 7 million baht, economic uncertainty and weak purchasing power are expected to limit growth. The center forecasts 2025 property transfers will grow only 2.1% year-on-year, while unsold units may increase 4.5% to over 610,000 units as second-hand listings grow and new project launches decline.
