Trade Office Warns Energy Crisis Driving Up Production and Living Costs
Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office warns that Middle East instability and the Hormuz Strait crisis are driving up energy import costs, with fuel prices surging 45.7% and producer costs rising 10.2%. While Thailand has diversified crude oil imports away from the Middle East toward Africa and Latin America, and shifted natural gas sourcing to the United States, global market pricing means costs remain high and risk passing through to consumer goods, transport, and household expenses.
On November 8, 2026, Nanthaphong Jiralerpong, Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), revealed that uncertainty in the Middle East and the world's main energy transport routes reflects the necessity for Thailand to manage risk without relying too heavily on imports from any single country or region. A disruption in energy supply would create a chain reaction affecting import costs, production, transportation, and ultimately product prices and the public's cost of living.
TPSO analyzed Thai import statistics by country from the Kidkha.com website for two key energy products: crude oil and natural gas. It compared import source structures between the pre-crisis period (January–February 2026) and the crisis period (March–September 2026) to study energy supply adjustments and assess risks from supply source contractions.
Crude oil: Import sources diversified further, reducing reliance on major countries. Before the Hormuz crisis, Thailand imported the most crude oil from the United Arab Emirates at 40.1% of total crude import value, followed by Saudi Arabia (18.1%) and the United States (16.2%), with the top three accounting for 74.4%. During the crisis, the top three's share fell to 54.7%, with other regions increasing — led by Angola (+4%), Brazil (+3.1%), and Argentina (+2.8%) — reflecting expanded procurement to Africa and Latin America, which reduces reliance on traditional major suppliers and adds flexibility when source countries or transport routes are affected.
Natural gas: Main import sources shifted but concentration risk remains. Pre-crisis, Thailand imported natural gas from Qatar, Myanmar, and Australia, together accounting for 57.3%. When the crisis affected shipping through the Hormuz Strait from Qatar, Thailand urgently secured replacement supplies from sources with safe shipping routes and high export capacity. The United States became the top source at 29.9%, followed by Australia (17.2%) and Myanmar (11.2%), with the top three at 58.3%, similar to before. This shows Thailand can swiftly switch trading partners to cope with crises, but the risk of supply source contraction persists, requiring continuous monitoring and management of import diversification.
Monitoring global energy costs: Despite diversification, price pressures persist. The TPSO chief stated that while diversification reduces shortage risk when transport routes face problems, it does not immediately lower energy costs because import prices still follow global market mechanisms, shipping costs, exchange rates, and procurement terms. The September 2026 import price index stood at 130.7, up 12.3% year-on-year, particularly in the fuel category.
