Thai Warns Q4 Oil May Hit $105, Urges Cost Control
Thai officials expect oil prices to climb to $105 per barrel in Q4 and urge firms to prepare cost‑control plans. Rising Brent crude and LNG prices, driven by Middle East tensions, have lifted Thailand’s fuel import bill by over 40% in the first eight months of 2026, worsening the trade deficit. A weaker baht further raises import costs, though it supports export competitiveness, and the government advises businesses to manage energy‑related expenses to protect profitability.
The situation has transmitted through the economy as Thailand is a net energy importer; fuel import value rose 40.1% in the first eight months of 2026, worsening the fuel trade deficit. The baht weakened from an average of 31.27 to 33.22 baht per dollar, increasing import‑cost pressure when converted, although it helps export competitiveness. The director explained that these cost pressures flow into domestic production costs, affecting sectors differently based on input‑output analysis. Land transport, petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, ceramics and other energy‑intensive industries are hit hardest, while many other sectors also feel indirect “hidden” energy costs through raw materials such as processed seafood, steel, plastics, synthetic rubber and textiles. In the first nine months of 2026, the producer price index rose 6.2% and consumer price index 1.54%, showing upstream prices rising faster than downstream; part of the cost has not been passed to consumers thanks to government energy‑price measures. Export‑oriented sectors like petrochemicals, processed seafood, steel and rubber must monitor costs closely to keep price competitiveness, whereas electronics, automobiles, gems and jewellery, which have lower energy‑intensity, are less affected, especially as competitors face similar energy costs and the baht moves in line with regional currencies, making energy‑cost management a key factor for competitiveness.
