YLG: Gold's Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact, But Mid-Term Pullback Risk Looms at $4,500 Support

YLG Bullion and Futures Company maintains that gold's big-picture uptrend remains intact, with prices consistently holding above the 200-day moving average despite mid-term consolidation risks. Since the start of 2025 through May 15, gold prices have climbed 7%, and despite this year's volatility exceeding previous years, gold continues to serve as a reliable safe-haven and investment asset according to YLG CEO Thippha Nawwattansap.

The company's 2025 price target remains unchanged at $5,596-5,769 per ounce (86,000-88,700 baht per baht of gold). Three key factors support gold's continued uptrend: first, massive public debt and money supply expansion will debase the US dollar and other fiat currencies, keeping investor interest in gold strong—the Federal Reserve's M2 money supply expanded roughly 40% between March 2020 and March 2022, injecting 3.7 trillion dollars into the system. Second, central banks worldwide, particularly in emerging markets, continue increasing gold reserves to reduce dollar dependence while uncertainty around Donald Trump's policies accelerates global central bank gold purchases. Third, governments rely on continuous budget deficits to support their economies, pushing already-high debt higher and forcing a "debasement trade" currency devaluation strategy, while preventing central banks from raising rates too high or too long due to fiscal constraints.

While the long-term uptrend remains intact, the mid-term shows correction patterns. In the short term, if gold holds above $4,500 per ounce (69,150 baht), pullbacks may lead to bounces testing resistance levels. Even if gold drops below $4,500, it's unlikely to fall below 2026's low of $4,100 per ounce. First resistance sits at $4,765-4,890 per ounce (73,250-75,200 baht), with secondary resistance at $5,285-5,400 per ounce (81,250-83,000 baht).