Consumer Confidence Falls Second Month on Oil Prices, Political Uncertainty
Thailand's consumer confidence index fell for a second straight month in October to 50.9, down from 52.1 in September, as households worried about Bangkok floods, high fuel costs, and political instability. The Thai Chamber of Commerce said the drop reflects lingering concerns over slow economic recovery and high living costs, though it noted some factors were temporary and maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2.2-2.5%.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce reported that the consumer confidence index for October 2026 stood at 50.9, down from 52.1 in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The drop stems from concerns over the impact of severe flooding in Bangkok, oil prices that had exceeded 40 baht per liter, and political uncertainty after the opposition prepared to submit a no-confidence motion. The index remains below the 100 baseline, reflecting consumer views that the economic recovery is slow, the cost of living remains high, and there are worries about the US-Iran conflict and ongoing political instability that could further dent confidence. Thanawat Polvichai, advisor to the Chamber's Economic and Business Forecasting Center, noted that part of the decline is due to temporary factors, as the flood situation has eased while oil prices have begun to fall following easing global market pressure and a government cut to the oil excise tax. However, political protests must be monitored for their impact on government stability. The November-December period will be a key checkpoint for the Thai economy, with attention on third-quarter GDP figures, revisions to the 2026-2027 economic outlook, export trends, tourism, investment, and the direction of trade wars. The Chamber maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2.2-2.5%, with 2027 growth potentially exceeding 2.5% if tourism recovers, oil prices ease, agricultural prices remain strong, and exports and investment continue to expand.
