Thai Economy Improves in September on Exports, AI Investment
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On October 30, 2026, Pranee Sutthasri, Senior Director of the Macroeconomic Department at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), revealed that the Thai economy in September 2026 improved overall from the previous month. Key drivers were merchandise exports and private investment expanding in line with the global technology and artificial intelligence (AI) cycle, including investment in data center businesses, which lifted industrial production.
Export value excluding gold rose 3.7% month-on-month, led by electronics and electrical appliances, particularly telecommunications equipment and computers shipped to the United States. Private investment surged 21.6% from the previous month, mostly from imports of data processing equipment and digital processing units related to AI and data center businesses, along with increased investment in the vehicle category.
However, private consumption began to slow, with the consumption index falling 2.2% month-on-month due to reduced spending on services, especially hotels and restaurants, reflecting household caution amid high living costs and debt. Spending on durable goods also declined, tracking lower passenger car and pickup truck sales.
On tourism, foreign tourist arrivals dropped 6.3% from the previous month, particularly short-haul markets, due to flight constraints and higher travel costs, as well as fewer Chinese tourists after the summer school break ended. However, foreign tourism revenue rose 12.5% month-on-month due to longer average stays and a higher share of long-haul visitors.
Industrial production increased 0.7% month-on-month, supported by electronics production benefiting from the global AI cycle, while automotive production fell, especially pickups, and steel production declined due to ongoing high inventory destocking.
The services sector contracted 1.7% from tourism-related activities, including hotels, restaurants, and passenger transport. Government spending contracted year-on-year due to lower disbursements by both central government and state enterprises.
On economic stability, headline inflation stood at 2.82%, up from the previous month due to higher energy prices as Middle East tensions re-escalated, while core inflation was 1.50%, little changed from the prior month.
The labor market remained stable overall but showed signs of fragility, with Article 38 unemployment benefit claims rising 7.1% month-on-month. The current account swung back to a deficit of $1.6 billion, mainly due to deficits in services, income, and transfers.
Overall, the Q3 2026 economy improved from the previous quarter, driven by merchandise exports, private investment, and rising consumption, particularly data center investment and consumption temporarily supported by government measures. However, the tourism sector remained sluggish.
Key issues to monitor include the continuity of the global technology and AI cycle, developments in trade wars and international protectionist policies, tourism recovery, and the impact of flooding and El Nino.
