E-Commerce Import Tax to Raise Inflation by Just 0.7%
Thailand's Cabinet has approved a new 30% import duty on goods purchased through foreign e-commerce platforms, effective January 1, 2027. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office estimates the measure will add only about 0.70% to the Consumer Price Index because affected products represent a small share of the inflation basket. While individual items such as electronics and accessories may see clearer price increases, the overall impact on headline inflation is expected to remain limited.
The Commerce Ministry says a 30% import tax on e-commerce goods would lift inflation by only 0.70%. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office reported that the Cabinet approved new import duty rules for goods bought via foreign e-commerce platforms, capped at 30%, effective January 1, 2027. The office analyzed the expected impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the new import duty criteria for e-commerce goods as follows: 1. Price direction: Goods with negative average 10-month price changes — such as earphones, screen protectors, TVs, bags, jewelry, computers and tablets — show a trend of 'decreasing less' and may turn positive if import duty costs are passed through to selling prices. 2. Already positive goods: Mobile phones, sports equipment and toys, and smart watches may see upward pressure on their average 10-month price changes if they fall within the affected scope and costs are passed through. 3. Combined weight: Goods expected to be affected carry a combined weight of roughly 0.70% of the CPI basket, so the impact on the overall inflation rate is expected to remain contained, though effects on individual items may be more visible. 4. Assessment limits: The duty increase should not be added directly to CPI, because the actual share of imports via e-commerce platforms, the pass-through rate to consumers, and item-specific tariff codes must all be considered. Overall, the new e-commerce import duty criteria are likely to exert upward pressure on inflation, but the impact on headline inflation should stay limited given the low 0.70% CPI weight of related goods and the possibility that cost pass-through may not be complete.
