GCAP GOLD Eyes New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as Pivotal Monetary Policy Shift, Gold Poised for $4,600 Rebound
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh's monetary policy approach could shift U.S. dollar and interest rate dynamics, with gold analysts eyeing a potential rebound to $4,600 if key support levels hold.
GCAP GOLD identifies Kevin Warsh, the incoming Federal Reserve chairman, as a key variable in shifting U.S. monetary policy, with analysts watching for a gold rebound toward $4,600. Areeratchai Murachay, chief analyst at GCAP Gold, reveals that Warsh's appointment may represent a significant turning point in U.S. monetary policy and is another factor global gold markets must monitor closely. Amid persistent high inflation, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and political pressures before U.S. midterm elections, these factors directly impact the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, Treasury bond yields, and gold prices. "Warsh's assumption of the Fed chairmanship raises questions about how well he can maintain the Fed's independence in monetary policy, especially given President Donald Trump's continued signals favoring quick interest rate cuts to stimulate an economy showing signs of slowdown." Energy costs remain elevated due to tensions with Iran, prompting markets to lower expectations for rate cuts this year and instead focus on the possibility that the Fed may need to return to tighter monetary policy if inflation accelerates. If Warsh pursues a stricter policy than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring gold prices in the near term. Additionally, Warsh has signaled support for reducing the Fed's balance sheet, currently valued at approximately $6.7 trillion, and may scale back forward guidance communications such as quarterly interest rate projections (Dot Plot), changes that could increase volatility in global financial markets during this policy transition. For investment strategy, analysts note that gold prices are entering a critical juncture determining whether they will recover or decline further. Key support lies at $4,480 (approximately 69,400 +/- baht for Thai gold); if this level holds, there is potential for a rebound testing resistance around $4,600 and $4,640 (approximately 70,900–71,600 baht). If $4,480 breaks, selling pressure could push prices to the $4,430–$4,400 zone (approximately 69,000–68,700 baht). Therefore, analysts recommend gradually accumulating gold at support levels to capitalize on rebound opportunities.
