Kasikornbank Research Center: Ending 60-Day Visa Exemption Amid Tourism Concerns, Foreign Tourist Numbers Expected to Drop to 30 Million
Thailand's visa exemption policy is being tightened from 60 to 30 days for eligible countries, with Kasikornbank Research Center projecting foreign tourist arrivals could drop to 30 million in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions and rising trav
The Kasikornbank Research Center states that new visa measure revisions under a May 19, 2026 Cabinet resolution aim to enhance security and regulate immigration, covering four main components:
1. Implementation of a "one country, one privilege" system to reduce redundancy, eliminating the previous practice where one country could receive multiple exemption privileges.
2. Reduction of visa-free stay duration from 60 days to 30 days, with eligible countries reduced from 93 to 54.
3. Creation of a new 15-day tourism visa exemption limited to three territories: Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.
4. Adjustment of the visa-on-arrival list to four countries: Azerbaijan, Belarus, India, and Serbia (reduced from 31 countries previously eligible).
These measures will take effect 15 days after publication in the Royal Gazette.
The Kasikornbank Research Center projects that these new visa measures will restrict the foreign tourism market. Although many countries lack representation in the 54-country exemption list or visa-on-arrival privileges, several key tourism markets such as China, Macau, Hong Kong, and South Korea have bilateral agreements with Thailand. Foreign tourists from countries outside the new visa framework represent only 0.7% of total foreign arrivals to Thailand in the first four months of 2026.
However, Thailand's foreign tourism market faces additional risks from Middle East instability. Ministry of Tourism and Sports data shows that from January 1 to May 24, 2026, foreign arrivals declined 2.8% to 13.4 million, with Middle Eastern tourists dropping 28% and ASEAN tourists declining 16%.
The remainder of 2026 presents mounting headwinds for foreign tourism, including: - Geopolitical tensions with Middle East instability and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict - Energy crisis pushing up travel costs and creating fuel shortages in some countries - Increased competition in the tourism industry as travelers seek value and safety - Infectious disease outbreaks including Ebola, COVID-19, and Hantavirus affecting regional travel patterns
Given these factors, the Kasikornbank Research Center projects that total foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand in 2026 could fall to 30 million, down from 33 million in the previous year.
