Thai Rice Exports Poised To Exceed 7.2 Million Tons

The Thai Rice Exporters Association anticipates Philippines and Malaysia will increase purchases of Thai rice for stockpiling, supporting forecasts of over 7.2 million tons in exports worth 140 billion baht total. Chukit Opasawong, honorary chairman of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, outlined this year's export outlook, noting that unexpected positive factors are now supporting stronger growth than previously predicted. Key importers Philippines and Malaysia have announced they will not buy rice from India, the world's largest producer and Thailand's principal competitor, because Indian rice stocks are aged and unsuitable for maintaining strategic reserves to buffer against potential El Niño-related production declines globally. "This creates an opportunity for Thailand, which has fresh seasonal rice coming to market at just the right time," Opasawong said. "These favorable conditions should drive Thai rice exports in June-July 2025 to spike dramatically, averaging no less than 800,000 tons monthly—well above the first-half average of just 500,000 tons." Exporters had previously worried about oversupply from Indian production and weak demand due to Thailand's higher prices, along with El Niño risks to domestic output. But circumstances have shifted in Thailand's favor as Philippines and Malaysia may now turn to Thai suppliers instead, despite Thai white rice 5% being roughly $100 per ton costlier than Indian rice. Opasawong projected that with these positive factors, Thailand will exceed its export target this year, with volumes potentially rising to 7.2 million tons from the original target of 7 million tons, generating 140 billion baht in total export value—a satisfactory outcome despite falling short of last year's 7.9 million tons. Thai rice exports during the first five months reached nearly 3 million tons, a respectable figure but representing a 5% decline compared to the previous year. Second-half export trends are expected to improve over the first half, though the impact of El Niño must be monitored closely.