Tourism Outlook Dims as Foreign Visitor Target Drops to 30 Million, Revenue Expectations Fall to 1.3 Trillion Baht
Thailand has slashed its 2025 foreign visitor target to 30-33 million from 36.7 million due to Middle East conflicts and global economic pressures, with projected tourism revenue falling to 1.36-1.51 trillion baht.
On May 5, Surathip Phanjarunakul, Minister of Tourism and Sports, revealed that Thailand's 2025 international tourism forecast has been revised downward. Foreign visitor arrivals are now projected at 30.07-33.20 million, down from the original target of 36.7 million, generating an estimated 1.36-1.51 trillion baht in revenue. This represents the best-case scenario under current circumstances, as Middle East conflicts and global economic challenges have impacted energy costs, food prices, and transportation expenses, pressuring global inflation and economic growth, while intensifying competition in the tourism market with airline fuel surcharges and reduced flight availability.
The ministry developed three scenarios to assess international tourism trends through year-end 2025:
1. Best Case: If Middle East conflict resolves by June, 33.20 million foreign visitors and 1.51 trillion baht revenue with minimal impact on nearby markets 2. Base Case: If conflict ends by September, 31.3 million foreign visitors and 1.42 trillion baht revenue with moderate impact on nearby markets 3. Worst Case: If conflict extends through year-end, 30 million foreign visitors and 1.36 trillion baht revenue with significant impact on nearby markets
As of April 4, Thailand had received 11,966,391 foreign visitors from January 1-April 3, 2025, generating 584,409 million baht in expenditures. The top five source markets were China (1,971,673), Malaysia (1,320,885), Russia (874,979), India (852,690), and South Korea (484,550). China remains Thailand's most important short-haul market overall.
Recently, short-haul market arrivals surged to 440,000 visitors, a 19.37% increase from the previous week, driven by extended holiday periods in multiple countries. Japanese visitors notably jumped to fourth place from eighth, with 32,000 arrivals during the Golden Week holiday period (April 29-May 6), representing a 105.13% increase. China and Malaysia's primary markets continued performing well, resulting in 601,610 total foreign arrivals this week, up 65,209 visitors or 12.16% from the previous week, averaging 85,944 arrivals daily.
