Thai Chamber Cuts Tourism Forecast as Asian Rivals Gain Ground

The Thai Chamber of Commerce states that tourism remains one of the most important engines driving the Thai economy in both 2026 and 2027, but the current situation reflects increasing challenges to the industry's competitiveness, particularly the loss of market share to rival Asian countries. Although the Thai economy in 2026 has a chance to expand around 2.2–2.5%, with 2.5% being most likely, supported by investment in the electronics, AI, and data center industries, exports, and government measures, the tourism sector — another key driver — has yet to recover to its original targets.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that 2026 will see about 31.5 million foreign tourists, down 4.5% from the nearly 33 million in the previous year and below the 32–34 million previously forecast. Key reasons include the Middle East conflict pushing up energy costs and airfares, as well as Thailand's own competitiveness issues.

However, 2027 is expected to see foreign tourist numbers rebound by 7.9% to around 34 million, an increase of 2.5 million, generating roughly 1.632 trillion baht. This recovery remains uncertain, with a worst-case scenario of 32.57 million and a best-case of 35.44 million.

"Next year we still believe tourism will recover, but reaching 34 million still carries risk because today Thailand cannot compete with other countries as distinctly as in the past," said Thanawat Phonwichai.

Concern over Vietnam encroaching on Thailand's tourism market: Thanawat noted that a survey of tourism operators shows most believe Thailand is losing ground to competitors. Even though Thailand has improved its competitiveness compared to three years ago, other countries have developed faster. Vietnam, in particular, is emerging as a major rival due to new attractions, travel costs and expenses that tourists perceive as better value, and increased direct flights to serve international markets.

Before COVID-19, Thailand attracted about 40 million foreign tourists, but returning to that level may take several more years, reflecting that the problem is not solely due to the global economy but also Thailand's ability to attract visitors.

Thailand also faces growing competition from Japan, China, South Korea, and Singapore, which are increasing their appeal. Thailand's strengths in service and hospitality are no longer enough to offset limitations in flight connectivity, value compared to price, and safety perception.

"What we need to look at is why competitor countries can draw more tourists even though Thailand still has tourism resources and good service. The government and business sector must work together to find the answer," Thanawat said.