EV Cars to Claim 64% Share of Market by 2027
SCB EIC predicts that by 2027 alternative‑energy vehicles will account for about 64% of Thailand’s car market, while pickup sales will remain flat at roughly 180,000 units due to high household debt and a move toward SUVs. Domestic output is expected to reach 1.5 million vehicles, three‑quarters of which will be xEV, and exports should modestly rebound to 860,000 units. The report urges Thailand to strengthen its EV supply chain and prepare for higher import taxes and global trade pressures.
SCB EIC’s Economic and Business Research Center forecasts that Thailand’s automotive industry will reach a pivotal point in 2027, with alternative‑energy vehicles (xEV) becoming the main growth driver. Meanwhile, internal‑combustion engine cars and pickups will face pressure from fragile consumer purchasing power and tighter lending. Domestic vehicle sales are projected at 730,000 units, up 6.6% year‑on‑year, with xEV sales around 460,000 units — about 64% of the market. By 2028, battery‑electric vehicles (BEV) are expected to hold the largest market share. Pickup sales in 2027 are seen holding steady at roughly 180,000 units, or one‑quarter of the market, due to high household debt, especially among farmers and SMEs, and a shift toward SUVs. On the production side, Thailand is expected to build 1.5 million vehicles, the highest output in four years, with about three‑quarters being xEV to meet domestic demand and offset imports under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 measures. Exports are forecast at 860,000 units, a modest rebound after three years of decline, helped by recovering Australian demand and some manufacturers resuming pickup shipments. However, risks remain from Middle East uncertainty and competition from Chinese cars. SCB EIC notes that the anticipated rise in excise taxes on imported electric vehicles, set to begin in 2027, could spur short‑term imports while encouraging long‑term local investment and higher domestic parts usage. Additionally, U.S. Section 301 measures on excess capacity may raise trade costs, particularly for tires, forcing firms to adapt to stricter global trade rules. The report concludes that Thailand must upgrade its production base and supply chain, add value to EV manufacturing, and develop a full‑scale industrial ecosystem to preserve its competitiveness and status as a key global automotive hub.
