MPI Revision Lifts Thailand GDP Forecast to 2.6%

Krungthai COMPASS assesses that the MPI revision may lift 2026 GDP by about 0.3 points, from the previous estimate of 2.3% to 2.6%, as the expanded product and factory coverage better reflects the current economic structure. However, the MPI increase does not translate proportionally to GDP, since GDP measures domestic value added, while some industries depend heavily on imported parts and raw materials, limiting the domestic value created by higher production.

Electronics Drives MPI Surge, K-Shape Recovery Evident The MPI revision makes the K-shaped manufacturing recovery clearer, with growth concentrated in computers and electronics while most industries have yet to clearly recover. In the first seven months of 2026, about 97.4% of the MPI increase came from the computer and electronics group, which carries only 9.8% weight in the overall index. This group contributed 3.94 points of the total roughly 4.0-point MPI rise.

Compared to January 2024, the computer and electronics index under the new MPI expanded over 140%, whereas the old index showed only about 14% growth. Meanwhile, other industries accounting for over 90% of MPI weight remained flat to slightly contracting, with indices still below the 100 level. The data revision partly narrows the gap between export and manufacturing growth: in the first seven months of 2026, exports grew 14.9% while the new MPI expanded 3.9%, compared to a 0.1% contraction under the old series. Yet it still reflects that export growth has not spread broadly across industries.

Exports Grow But Still Rely Heavily on Imports Krungthai COMPASS notes that while the new MPI aligns manufacturing more closely with exports, a gap persists. Data from the first eight months of 2026 shows 13 of 14 industry groups analyzed, covering 95.7% of MPI weight, had export growth exceeding MPI growth. Notably, the computer and electronics group — the main driver of the MPI revision — has a high proportion of