Thailand Revises 2026 GDP Forecast After Updating Industrial Index
Thailand’s economic planning agency is revising its 2026 GDP forecast after updating the method used to calculate the country’s industrial production index. The MPI rose 4.44% year‑on‑year in August 2026, prompting a review of GDP data for the first two quarters. The agency expects to publish clear revised figures by early 2027, while the current 2026 GDP projection remains 2–2.5%.
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) is revising Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth rate after the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) updated its Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) formula to include newly emerging production activities for a more accurate picture of the country’s industrial structure. The MPI rose 4.44% year‑on‑year in August 2026 to 103.43, prompting NESDC to align its GDP estimates with the revised index. NESDC Secretary‑General Danucha Pichayanan said the update will not be applied to the Q3/2026 GDP release scheduled for November, but the council will back‑adjust the first‑quarter and second‑quarter figures and will review the fourth‑quarter data later, expecting clear numbers by early 2027. He noted that NESDC’s current 2026 GDP forecast stands at 2–2.5 percent. He added that while the revision aims to reflect real economic activity more accurately, it is too early to say how much the annual GDP growth rate will change until the new calculations are complete.
