Thai Housing Market Seen Stagnant, Second‑Hand Home Demand Rises
SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s housing market will stay flat or grow only slightly in 2026‑2027, with a slow medium‑term recovery hampered by weak purchasing power, high household debt and tight lending. Buyers are shifting toward lower‑priced second‑hand homes, while flooding in Bangkok and nearby areas adds locational risk and hampers inventory clearance. The used‑home segment is expected to outperform new‑home sales, especially for properties under seven million baht.
SCB EIC evaluated Thailand's housing market for 2026‑2027, saying it will likely stagnate or grow only slightly and recover slowly in the medium term due to weak domestic purchasing power and sluggish recovery, while high‑income buyers are slowing down. Financial institutions remain tight on lending and home prices stay high with an upward trend. Ongoing economic problems—rising costs outpacing income and high household debt—make consumers cautious and delay home purchases, especially middle‑ and low‑income groups facing credit constraints. High‑income buyers, both domestic and foreign, also postpone purchases and investments due to economic uncertainty.
For 2026, nationwide property transfers are expected to edge up slightly before flattening in 2027, partly because of a low base in 2025 after an earthquake slowed buying and transfers, plus a rush to complete transfers before the fee‑reduction measure ended on June 30 2026 and developers’ promotions to clear inventory.
The second‑hand housing market is gaining popularity. SCB EIC sees demand for used homes rising in the short and medium term because they are cheaper than new homes, matching buyers’ focus on price‑value amid a slow economic recovery and rising new‑home prices driven by land costs. Transfers in the used‑home segment are expected to grow faster than the new‑home segment and already hold a high share, especially for properties priced under seven million baht, which benefit from the transfer‑ and mortgage‑fee reduction measures. Economic pressure is also pushing indebted owners to sell, adding to used‑home supply, some of which become non‑performing assets (NPAs).
The price per unit of transferred used homes is expected to fall, reflecting tighter budgets among middle‑ and low‑income buyers, while growing used‑home inventory gives shoppers more affordable options.
In Bangkok and its vicinity, accumulated unsold units are projected to dip in the short term, but the decline is selective. Condominiums remain attractive due to location and transport advantages, while townhouses are regaining interest among middle‑ and low‑income buyers because they are more affordable than single‑family and twin homes.
However, loan rejection rates, especially for homes under five million baht, need monitoring as they could slow the clearance of condo and townhouse inventories. The detached‑home market still faces pressure from demand lagging behind supply and competitive promotions aimed at clearing stock.
Additionally, flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas since …
