Thailand's 2025 Growth Forecast Drops to 1.9%
Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 1.9% by Siam Commercial Bank, which cited exhausted government stimulus and the lack of new economic drivers. The slowdown reflects weak household incomes, tight credit, and a
Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Center has trimmed its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.9%, citing exhausted government measures and the absence of a new economic driver. The bank presented its analysis at a Wealth Community event examining global and Thai economic outlooks for the second half of 2025.
SCB EIC forecasts global economic growth of 2.5% in 2025, supported by artificial intelligence infrastructure investment and strong electronics demand. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at 3.50–3.75% throughout the year, while the European Central Bank may raise rates once more in September, and the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain rates at 1%.
Thailand's economy is projected to expand 2% in 2025, bolstered by government measures, exports, and private investment. However, growth will follow a pronounced K-shaped pattern, with large businesses and technology-linked sectors such as AI, data centers, electronics, and digital infrastructure capturing most gains. These sectors rely heavily on imports, limiting broader spillover effects on domestic supply chains, employment, and incomes. Household income has declined for the first time in six years, purchasing power remains weak, credit access is tight, and labor markets are increasingly fragile. The Bank of Thailand is expected to hold policy rates steady throughout 2025 to balance inflation pressures against incomplete economic recovery.
Punyawat Srisaiyanond, senior economist at SCB EIC, highlighted ongoing geopolitical risks from military conflicts and trade wars as critical factors affecting energy prices, production costs, supply chains, and global financial volatility. The Middle East remains highly uncertain, with crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz still below half pre-war levels, signaling sluggish recovery after fresh fighting erupted. Oil prices are expected to decline gradually in the third and fourth quarters but may not return to pre-war averages in the near term, keeping energy and transport costs as drags on the economy.
Trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty, though their impact on global commerce has proven less severe than anticipated. Asian trade continues expanding, as the region serves as a critical manufacturing base for technology products and AI supply chains, with strong U.S. import demand for these goods even as other imports slow. China's exports to the United States have contracted, but it has offset this by expanding sales within Southeast Asia.
SCB EIC forecasts global growth of 2.5% in 2025, edging up slightly to 2.6% in 2026 compared to 2.8% in 2024. Investment tied to artificial intelligence and electronics demand will remain the primary drivers, anchoring the global economy amid war-related pressures and tight financial conditions.