Fitch Upgrades Thailand Credit Outlook to Stable
Fitch upgraded Thailand's credit outlook to stable while keeping its BBB+ rating, citing improved government stability, steady economic growth, controlled debt levels, and strong foreign exchange reserves.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanpraphas revealed on September 18, 2025 that Fitch upgraded Thailand's credit outlook from negative to stable while maintaining the BBB+ sovereign credit rating. This means all three major international credit rating agencies—Fitch, Moody's, and S&P—now have stable outlooks for Thailand, reflecting growing confidence in the government's economic policy direction and fiscal discipline.
Fitch cited four key factors for the upgrade: First, government stability has reduced political uncertainty that previously hindered the Thai economy and supports continuity in state policy implementation, positioning the government to better drive medium-term economic policies and fiscal consolidation. Second, the Thai economy is expanding steadily and weathering global energy price shocks better than expected, with Fitch projecting 2.3% growth in 2025 (compared to 2.4% in 2024), supported by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as increased domestic consumption from state programs such as the Thailand Helps Thailand Plus initiative. Tourism arrivals fell 4% in the first eight months of 2025, though revenue remains solid and the sector is expected to recover next year.
Third, government debt stood at 59.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2024 and is projected to stay below 63% by fiscal year 2027, improving from the previous forecast of 65%, thanks to better-than-expected fiscal performance and continued economic expansion. Although the government is implementing stimulus measures and green energy transition support, Fitch believes it remains committed to fiscal discipline and revenue reform to support medium-term consolidation plans. Fourth, Thailand maintains strong foreign exchange reserves, with Fitch predicting a current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2026 after a temporary deficit of 0.5% in 2025 due to higher oil prices and capital imports for data center construction. The sustained current account surpluses in recent years have resulted in Thailand accumulating strong net external assets.
