Thai Chamber Warns Floods May Cut GDP by 0.15%
The Thai Chamber of Commerce warns that recent floods could cost the economy between 17 and 30 billion baht and cut GDP by up to 0.15%. Bangkok bears the brunt of the losses, while the Chamber outlines three scenarios and urges government action to stimulate services, protect workers, coordinate supply chains, and compensate farmers. Despite the impact, the Chamber maintains its 2025 GDP forecast of 2.2‑2.5%.
Thai Chamber of Commerce University revealed the impact of floods on the economy from the situation between September 16 and October 4, 2025. It said flooding occurred in 48 provinces, lasting on average about 11 days, affecting 1.6 million rai of farmland, or 1.1% of the country's total agricultural area, with the most damage to rice fields at 1.33 million rai. In the industrial sector, flooding hit one of the 68 Amata City industrial estates, representing 1.5%, and affected 34 factories, about 0.7%. Two car manufacturers, Toyota and Honda, temporarily halted production, although their plants were not inundated. Meanwhile, the services sector, especially tourism, saw only minor impact, as only one airline was affected. Foreign tourist numbers are expected to drop by 12,000-24,000, or roughly 575 million to 1.15 billion baht. Hotel occupancy rates in Bangkok may fall by no more than 10%, leading to a projected decline in foreign tourism revenue of 0.04–0.07%, though recovery is expected by year‑end during the high season. Because conditions vary by locality, the Chamber outlined three scenarios: a base case predicting 22.5 billion baht in losses and a 0.11% GDP dip; a better case with 17 billion baht loss and 0.09% GDP dip; and a worse case with 29.5 billion baht loss and 0.15% GDP dip. The hardest‑hit province is Bangkok, with losses of 10.083 billion baht, followed by the Eastern region at 5.965 billion baht, the periphery at 3.9 billion baht, the Central region at 1.981 billion baht, the North at 514 million baht, and the Northeast at 97 million baht. 'We expect the floods will not persist long, so the economic impact will be limited to 1.7‑30 billion baht, possibly shaving 0.11‑0.15% off GDP, without affecting the overall outlook. The Thai Chamber of Commerce therefore maintains its GDP forecast for this year at 2.2‑2.5%.' Thanawath added that to limit damage the government should act in four areas: immediately stimulate service‑sector demand once waters recede, with the Tourism Ministry, TAT, Bangkok and Chonburi launching campaigns in Pattaya and Bangkok’s shopping districts from mid‑October, since services account for 67% of the damage and are hardest to compensate; protect daily‑wage and informal workers by having the Labour Ministry and Social Security Office provide short‑term income compensation and urgent hiring in recovery work in October to reach those missed by debt‑relief and loan measures; establish an Eastern supply‑chain coordination centre involving the Industry Ministry, industrial estate authorities, the Highway Department and the Federation of Thai Industries to set up alternative transport routes and give advance drainage plans to businesses to cut industrial losses by 6.4 billion baht; and quickly survey damage and pay compensation to farmers, with the Agriculture Ministry working with GISTDA to assess flooded rice fields in the Chao Phraya and Thachin river basins instead of full field surveys, and disburse relief payments by November.
