Thailand's Winter Forecast Delayed, Southern Heavy Rain Expected
Thailand’s Meteorological Department forecasts that the 2026 winter will start about a week later than usual, with average lows in the north around 22–23 °C and Bangkok lows of 19–21 °C. The southern region should expect continued heavy rain as a low‑pressure area may develop into a tropical cyclone, increasing flood risk. Sea conditions will be rougher, and an strengthening El Niño is expected to influence the pattern.
The department said the coldest period will be from late December 2026 to early February 2027, with frost possible on mountaintops. In the south, cool weather will occur in some areas but heavy rain will continue, especially on the eastern side in November and December, raising the risk of flash floods and river overflow. Sea conditions in the Gulf of Thailand may see waves 2–3 metres high, while the Andaman Sea will have 1–2 metre waves. Low‑pressure systems in November and December could strengthen into tropical cyclones moving toward the Gulf and southern Thailand, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and possible storm surges of 3–4 metres. The forecast notes a strengthening El Niño late 2026 into early 2027, contributing to higher‑than‑average temperatures and fewer cold days.
