Tisco Warns Investors: Inflation, Oil Prices, Rates Loom
Tisco Bank warns investors to prepare for second-half 2569 volatility, predicting oil could breach $100 per barrel amid inflation and elevated global interest rates, and recommends shifting to energy hedges, infrastructure stocks, and divid
Preparing for second-half 2569 investing demands caution, warns Tisco Bank, which assesses global markets face pressure from oil prices potentially breaking through $100 per barrel, accelerating inflation, and persistently elevated worldwide interest rates. The bank recommends portfolio adjustments using three investment themes: oil and gold to manage energy-driven inflation, infrastructure stocks linked to AI and healthcare to capture global mega-trends, and dividend stocks and balanced funds to generate cash flow and reduce portfolio volatility.
On July 7, 2569, Nathkrit Lueotwithaichai, CFP and Head of Wealth Advisory at Tisco Bank, revealed that second-half investing presents mounting challenges. Global stock prices have risen to elevated levels while inflation pressures intensify from oil price trends. Tisco's Wealth Advisory forecasts oil could again breach $100 per barrel due to declining inventories and geopolitical tensions, while interest rates are expected to remain high given tightening monetary policies across countries. Europe and Japan may raise rates further, while the US is expected to increase rates again in 2570.
"The critical risk to watch is energy-driven inflation, which extends beyond crude oil costs to production expenses, transport fees, and prices across the broader economy, potentially straining purchasing power and consumption ahead," Nathkrit said. "If inflation pressures persist, global central banks may need to maintain elevated rates longer than expected, keeping bond yields high and limiting gains in risk assets."
Despite these challenges, Tisco recommends a strategic shift from chasing market returns to selecting assets suited to current conditions. The bank outlines three primary investment themes for portfolio balance:
1. **Energy inflation hedges: Oil and gold** Oil addresses pressure from energy prices, while gold protects against inflation uncertainty and financial market risks. Tisco's Economic and Strategic Analysis Center (TISCO ESU) expects oil could again top $100 per barrel in coming months due to persisting supply risks from US-Iran tensions and strong crude imports to replenish declining Strategic Petroleum Reserves. US refined product demand remains above five-year averages while inventories decline, indicating markets remain supply-constrained.
For gold, Tisco forecasts prices could rise to $4,500–$4,800 per troy ounce from current levels around $4,100, given market expectations of one US rate hike this year, though TISCO ESU predicts the earliest hike could come in 2570. Gold serves as critical protection against inflation and financial market risks.
