US Targets Eight Thai Industries in Transshipment Probe
The US has identified eight Thai industries for increased scrutiny over potential transshipment fraud, though Thailand's Tier 2 classification is only a risk assessment and doesn't conclude Thai exporters are involved. Thai exporters should
Associate Professor Atthapol Pisalwanich of Rangsit University's Faculty of Economics has released an analysis titled "US Crackdown on Transshipment Fraud: Impact on Thai Exports and Industries Under The Great Transshipment Scam Report." He notes that heightened US scrutiny of goods misclassification and trade-policy evasion will require Thai exporters—particularly those dependent on Chinese raw materials and components—to prepare for stricter origin verification and production-process investigations.
The report "The Great Transshipment Scam: Rise, Scope, and Costs," released on August 13, 2025, by the US Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, focuses on the use of third countries as conduits to import Chinese goods into the US market while avoiding tariffs or trade measures. Monitored behaviors range from relabeling or document falsification to processing without genuine manufacturing or minimal value-added operations, including use of Chinese manufacturing bases in third countries.
Thailand is placed in Tier 2 alongside Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and Vietnam—countries with significant trade links to China in raw materials, manufacturing bases, logistics, and supply chains. However, Tier 2 classification is merely a risk-assessment grouping and does not conclude that Thailand or Thai exporters engage in transshipment fraud.
Professor Pisalwanich emphasized that the report does not automatically trigger additional tariffs on Thai goods but may inform the US Customs and Border Protection's risk-screening process. Exporters should prepare documentation on product origin, manufacturers, factories, production processes, raw-material and component sources, and shipping routes for backward traceability.
Thailand-China trade connections warrant close monitoring. In 2016, Thailand exported $23.568 billion to China and imported $41.044 billion. By 2025, exports rose to $39.381 billion while imports surged to $108.557 billion, widening the trade deficit from $17.476 billion to $69.176 billion—a 295.8% increase—with a cumulative deficit of approximately $286.879 billion or 9.61 trillion baht between 2016 and 2025.
Import data from 2016 to 2025 shows that the top ten product categories imported from China—mostly machinery, electronic equipment, raw materials, and components—increased from 69.08% of total Chinese imports in 2016 to 76.86% in 2025. This reflects deeper integration with Chinese supply chains but does not indicate Thai goods are transshipped.
Eight industries face heightened scrutiny based on comparisons of Chinese imports with Thai exports to the US: electronic equipment and electrical machinery, machinery and mechanical components, iron and steel, iron or steel products, plastics and plastic products, vehicles and vehicle components, copper and copper products, and measuring instruments, medical devices, and optical equipment.
