Gold Prices Under Pressure After Breaking $4,000 Support

Leng Hong Commodities views short-term gold prices as still under pressure after breaking the $4,070-$4,060 support zone, now targeting the $3,950 level. A break below that could see prices test the next support at $3,880 per ounce, potentially marking a new yearly low. However, the RSI indicator across multiple timeframes has entered oversold territory, suggesting a technical rebound is possible, though it may only be a short-term profit-taking bounce rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

For the coming week, gold is expected to trade in a range of roughly $3,950-$4,060, with short-term support at $3,970-$3,960 and key resistance around $4,030. A break above that could see a retest of $4,070-$4,080, but failure to breach it would warrant caution over selling pressure.

Markets must closely monitor the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and Chair Powell's remarks, along with the PCE Price Index — a key inflation gauge the Fed uses for policy decisions. Inflation and interest rate direction remain influential for gold prices ahead.

"War and Oil" a Key Variable Pressuring Gold

Pattrin noted that factors pressuring gold go beyond the dollar and interest rates. Surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions have become a critical variable, as higher energy costs could fuel inflation and complicate Fed policy. Even as U.S. Treasury yields begin to decline — typically a bullish factor for gold — pressure from oil prices and international conflict continues to offset that support. Markets are reacting rapidly to war and geopolitical risk news, driving oil prices up before events materialize, adding volatility to gold.

Watch for "Sell on Rumor, Buy on Fact"

Pattrin also cautioned investors about "sell on rumor, buy on fact" behavior, noting that past global crises or uncertainty-driven events have often triggered this pattern.