NESDC Revises GDP Calculation to Include Missing Electronics Factories

On October 27, 2026, Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), addressed suspicions that the Prime Minister had ordered a recalculation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). He stated this was not because GDP figures were low and the Premier demanded they be redone, but rather because the NESDC had been reporting economic conditions to the Prime Minister over the past two to three months. During that period, many economic indicators showed improvement, yet overall economic growth did not meet expectations. "The Prime Minister did not order us to rush or adjust GDP figures to show higher growth at all; he only expects the data to reflect the truth as accurately as possible, to serve as a basis for planning and setting economic policy with maximum effectiveness," Danucha said.

Doubts about why Thai GDP was not moving in line with the economic direction have been discussed at the policy level and among economic agencies since 2024. Foreign analysis institutes observed that Thailand's Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) may not yet reflect the rapid structural changes in the industrial sector. This aligns with observations from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Thailand is one of four countries in the region, alongside South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia, benefiting from the AI industry growth cycle. However, while other economies grew and Thai electronics exports genuinely expanded, Thai GDP still did not grow as expected.

Danucha said that over the past six to seven months, the NESDC, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira and relevant agencies, continuously studied and analyzed data before discovering approximately four to five large electronics export factory groups, representing a combined production value of roughly 800 billion baht, that had not been incorporated into the index calculation system.

The problem did not stem from private sector error but from limitations of the old calculation system, which used a fixed base year of 2021. At that time, these factories and product groups had not yet begun operations, preventing the system from fully reflecting the new industrial structure that actually emerged.

To fix the issue long-term and improve data accuracy, agencies have adopted the Chain-linking Index method, which compares data with the previous year. This approach is used in many countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan, and follows the same principle Thailand already uses for GDP calculation. It will adjust manufacturing sector weights to align with actual production data in each period.

The NESDC Secretary-General expects to see the impact of the industrial data index improvement in the third-quarter figures. The additional 800 billion baht in production value factored into the calculation will have a significant positive effect on GDP. However, this data represents only part of the industrial sector; the overall GDP direction, whether adjusted up or down, will still depend on the agricultural and service sectors.