SCB Financial Markets on August 7 reported that the Thai baht experienced significant volatility last month due to Middle East conflict, yen intervention, and gold price swings. The baht has recently strengthened following falling oil prices, a stronger yen, and rising gold prices. However, analysts expect near-term weakness as war uncertainties persist and could reignite, pressuring the baht downward. In the longer term, the baht may recover modestly if conflict resolves as expected and the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady this year, alongside potential improvement in Thailand's trade deficit by year-end. Risks from unwinding carry trades remain low as investors have diversified funding currencies, and significant yen strength is unlikely with gradual repatriation to Japan.

Head of Financial Markets Patrick Poulia revealed the baht swung 60 satang (roughly 2%) against the dollar within two weeks, weakening to 33.90 baht per dollar before recovering to around 33.20 in early July. Volatility has stemmed from renewed Middle East conflict and foreign exchange intervention. The first half of July saw continued baht weakness as U.S.-Iran tensions flared following a broken MOU, raising crude oil prices and stoking global inflation concerns while widening Thailand's June trade deficit. The Thai central bank remained calm about currency direction and signaled no rush to raise rates, contrasting with other regional central banks, causing baht selling pressure compared to regional peers.

Recent baht strength followed reports of U.S.-Iran negotiations resuming and OPEC+ announcing crude production increases, which quickly lowered oil prices. Japanese and U.S. intervention in the yen market simultaneously bolstered regional currencies including the baht. Near-term weakness may return as war uncertainty remains high and U.S. economic data stays resilient. While the U.S. may slow Iran strikes, a permanent peace deal remains elusive given stark differences in both sides' positions.

The girlfriend of Tawit Tephan, also known as Tae Dragon Five, a 46-year-old man, filed a report with investigators at Bang Khruai Police Station in Nonthaburi stating that he disappeared from their home with his bicycle around 4 a.m. on August 6 and could not be contacted. Deputy Police Commander Kittisak Pongsatanaruks of Bang Khruai Police Station convened a meeting with officers to intensify the search for the missing man. Initial questioning of his girlfriend revealed that he left without his mobile phone and was not wearing a tracking watch. The family denied any family conflict or depression issues. CCTV footage from the village entrance showed him cycling out alone around 4 a.m. Police also inquired with his cycling friends, various hospitals, and local police stations but found no leads at the time. On August 7, 2025, authorities discovered his body floating in the Chao Phraya River near Rama VII Bridge in Nonthaburi and transported it for autopsy.

Deputy Prime Minister Yossanan Wongswat visited Thepsirin School in Nonthaburi on August 7, 2025, following a shooting incident at the campus. Yossanan urged the public and media to refrain from sharing images of the incident, citing human rights concerns and asking people to rely on official police statements instead.

The Education Ministry has ordered a temporary closure of Thepsirin School for assessment. The Department of Mental Health is coordinating closely with the Education Ministry to develop long-term preventive measures based on lessons learned from past incidents. Yossanan emphasized that the incident has shaken the entire nation and requires careful, comprehensive handling to limit the spread of the crisis.

Regarding allegations that bullying or harassment may have prompted the shooting, Yossanan said investigators are still gathering complete information and cautioned against drawing premature conclusions. Police, local administration, and the Interior Ministry will be responsible for announcing findings. He noted that the case involves two key issues: the mental health of both the teacher and students affected by the media sharing of the incident.

Yossanan confirmed the Education Ministry is taking the matter of school bullying seriously and continuously. He stressed that authorities are coordinating victim support and compensation, though those details will be determined by relevant agencies. Regarding the shooter's motive, particularly why a teacher was targeted, Yossanan said information remains incomplete. He added that military personnel and volunteers have already begun donating blood at Phra Nang Klao Hospital to support the numerous victims.

Phakphol Ngamlaksana and his family have donated 1.9 million baht to the Organ Transplant Development Center at Chulalongkorn Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, to purchase a specialized organ transport van for transplant operations. An additional 2 million baht has been given to support the center's operations and strengthen medical treatment capacity, improving the chances of saving patients waiting for organ transplants. The donation was formally received by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sompong Suvanwalaigron, an internal medicine specialist in endocrinology and metabolism at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Medicine, together with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Natthavut Towanchai, a nephrology specialist in the Department of Internal Medicine, and hospital administrators, at the hospital's administrative building.

The organ transport van will serve as a critical asset for the medical team and healthcare personnel, enabling rapid, safe, and timely transport of organs and necessary medical equipment during critical periods—a key factor in transplant success. The van will improve patient survival rates and treatment outcomes for those awaiting organ transplants.

This donation reflects Phakphol Ngamlaksana and his family's commitment to strengthening Thailand's public health system, enhancing medical treatment capabilities, and ensuring patients receive timely care. The gift embodies their values of generosity and shared responsibility for the benefit of society as a whole.

The Department of Fisheries has released analysis of U.S. Section 301 tariffs, emphasizing that Thai tuna exports remain strong while pledging continued shrimp industry development alongside stricter labor protections and certification of forced-labor-free seafood across all supply chains.

The U.S. Trade Representative investigation identified 60 trading partners deemed ineffective in enforcing bans on forced-labor products. According to Thitiporn Loawpraserit, Director-General of the Department of Fisheries, Thailand's core issue is not domestic forced-labor oversight but rather the lack of laws controlling imports of forced-labor goods. The U.S. sources 96% of its seafood imports from the 60 investigated economies, with only 4% from unexamined countries.

The U.S. has proposed two additional tariff rates: 10% for 16 countries including Canada, Ecuador, Indonesia, Mexico, and the United Kingdom that have forced-labor bans or reciprocal trade agreements; and 12.5% for 46 other countries including Thailand.

The Department of Fisheries analyzed impacts on Thailand's two leading seafood exports to the U.S.—tuna and shrimp—which represent 76% of Thai seafood export value. Thailand leads global tuna exports to the U.S. at 29.73% market share ($574 million), and despite the higher 12.5% tariff compared to Ecuador and Indonesia's 10% rate, Thailand's strong processing industry and efficient supply chain are expected to absorb the impact and maintain market share.

For shrimp, Thailand holds only 4.53% of the U.S. market ($302 million) against India's 36.15%, Ecuador's 25.59%, and Indonesia's 14.69%. The 12.5% tariff versus competitors' 10% rate poses a significant price disadvantage, compounded by Ecuador's rising production volumes and lower costs, factors that influence U.S. consumer purchasing decisions.

Prime Minister Anuthin Charnvirakul expressed condolences to families of the deceased following a shooting incident at Thepsirin School in Bang Kruai, Nonthaburi, and stressed that such incidents must never happen again. He pledged that nothing will take priority over public safety and ordered all relevant agencies to provide urgent assistance and compensation. Deputy Prime Minister Boradit Parisananantkul, who heads the government's disaster relief fund, convened a meeting to approve compensation payments based on established rates: 1 million baht for deaths, 700,000 baht for permanent disability, 200,000 baht for severe injuries, and 100,000 baht for minor injuries. The Ministry of Justice's Rights Protection Department has also begun providing legal support under criminal injury compensation law. The government expressed sincere condolences and pledged comprehensive, coordinated assistance from all relevant agencies.