Thailand's July Inflation Rises 1.95% Amid Oil Price Concerns

Nanthapon Jirawalesspong, director of the Ministry of Commerce's trade policy and strategy office, announced that Thailand's general consumer price index for July 2025 stood at 102.10, representing a 1.95% year-on-year increase. The rise marks a slowdown from June's 2.42% but remains continuously positive due to domestic fuel prices staying elevated compared to the previous year, driven by ongoing Middle East conflicts that push public transportation costs higher. Processed food prices have risen broadly and significantly, with some food ingredients gradually increasing, while fresh vegetables are higher than last year due to low base prices and weak El Niño effects.

The 1.95% inflation comprised a 1.88% rise in non-food and beverage categories, driven by elevated domestic fuel prices, public transport fares, and international airfares, alongside a 2.04% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages from higher prices in items like pre-cooked meals, fresh vegetables, rice, and eggs. Energy prices moderated month-on-month—gasohol dropped from 37–38 baht per liter to 36.16 baht, while diesel fell 3.33% from 39.31 to 35.98 baht per liter.

Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) accelerated to 1.34% from 1.23% in June, while the seven-month average (January–July 2025) rose 1.21% year-over-year. Nanthapon warned that August inflation is expected to remain positive due to sustained high fuel prices from continued Middle East tensions and new military operations, persistently elevated food prices with broad menu increases, rising transportation costs, and fresh vegetable prices higher than the prior year. Offsetting pressures include slightly lower electricity rates and declining fresh fruit prices from ample supply. The Ministry maintains its 2025 inflation forecast at 1.5–2.5%.