Social Security Fund May Run Dry by 2052, TDRI Warns
TDRI researchers warn Thailand's Social Security Fund could be depleted by 2052 without immediate reform, as the country rapidly ages. They recommend doubling contribution rates to 12%, raising the retirement age to 60, and improving investment returns. The conference also highlighted gaps in elderly care services and the disproportionate caregiving burden on women.
At the TDRI Annual Public Conference 2026 on "Thai Insecurity in an Uncertain World," researcher Arthakrit Leksiwilai stated that by 2050, Thailand will have more than one in three citizens classified as elderly. Bedridden and homebound seniors are increasing, yet caregiving burdens fall disproportionately on women — wives and daughters. Although local governments receive 10,442 baht per person annually from the National Health Security Office to care for dependent elderly, service access remains low, especially in Bangkok where only 5,000 seniors benefit. The government should improve screening and registration, develop urban-appropriate care services, and raise caregiver standards after finding 80% of home caregivers lack training.
Senior TDRI researcher Chakrit Lertnithat added that without Social Security Fund reform, the fund may turn negative by 2037 and run out between 2052-2058 as contributors shrink while beneficiaries grow and live longer. Three urgent measures are needed: raise pension contributions from 6% to 12%, boost average investment returns from 2-3% to 5-6%, and raise the pension eligibility age from 55 to 60 with exceptions for those unable to work. Long-term proposals include individual accounts, a minimum pension guarantee, improved governance with transparent investment and budget disclosure, and separating the pension fund from the civil service system to allow professional fund management.
