TTB Predicts 40% EV Market Surge Before Tax Hike
TMBThanachart Bank predicts Thailand's EV market will surge 30-40% in the final two months of 2026 as consumers rush to buy before a CBU excise tax hike to 35% takes effect on January 1, 2027. The bank's EV loan portfolio grew 133% year-on-year through September, capturing a 25% market share, while EVs now represent 61% of new vehicle registrations nationwide.
TTB expects the EV market to surge 30-40% by year-end as buyers rush to purchase before the excise tax increase.
November 13, 2026 — Chatcharit Tangkijngamkiet, Head of Automotive Lending at TMBThanachart Bank (TTB), revealed that the EV market in late 2026 is projected to expand 30-40% above normal. This stems from both the Motor Expo, which typically lifts purchase demand by around 20%, and a new factor this year pressuring consumers to decide before the excise tax on fully built-up (CBU) electric vehicles jumps to 35%, effective January 1, 2027.
"The upcoming excise tax measure on EVs is accelerating advance purchases, likely pushing EV demand in the final two months of 2026 up 30-40%." For TTB, this aligns with market conditions. Normally the bank disburses 2,000-3,000 EV loans per month, but year-end volume will exceed that.
TTB's EV customer base primarily buys vehicles priced from 800,000 baht upward, mainly around 1 million baht, keeping loan quality strong with non-performing loans below the market average. EV buyers tend to put down over 20% down payments. The bank adheres to responsible lending, setting effective interest rates for new auto loans at 5.21-10.00% per annum.
Overall new car sales in Thailand for 2026 are forecast at 670,000-700,000 units, up 13% from the previous year, with EVs and alternative-energy vehicles becoming the main industry driver. EV registrations (BEV, HEV, PHEV combined) have jumped from 6% in 2021 to 61% in 2026, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have fallen from 94% to just 39%.
The seller side has also transformed: automotive brands in Thailand have doubled from about 30 to nearly 60, expanding dealer networks by 50%. Average EV prices have dropped from over 1 million baht to around 800,000 baht, pushing the EV market fully into the mass segment.
Chatcharit added that TTB Drive's BEV hire-purchase loans grew 133% year-on-year in January-September 2026, outpacing overall market growth of 99%, and accounted for 44% of the bank's total new lending. TTB Drive holds a 25% market share in EV financing.
"TTB has supported financing across the entire EV supply chain: over 8 billion baht in EV import financing, over 10 billion baht in dealer floor-plan financing, and over 65 billion baht in accumulated retail customer loans."
Looking ahead, the EV market is entering a used-car transition phase. An estimated 279,000 EVs aged three years or older will accumulate, with 10,000-25,000 expected to enter the used-car market. To create standards and confidence in residual values, TTB Drive developed the ttb Bluebook EV pricing tool covering over 36 brands and 900 models, ready to provide financing.
