IMF: AI Like Slow Tsunami, Could Lift Growth 3%
IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva warned that AI acts like a slow‑moving tsunami, potentially boosting advanced‑economy growth by about 3% while threatening jobs worldwide. She noted that AI‑driven investment is already rising, especially in data centers, with the United States, China and India leading the supply chain and Thailand also benefiting from AI infrastructure. Georgieva urged governments to prepare workers through AI‑focused education, lifelong learning and fiscal planning to manage labor‑market shifts and ensure a fair transition.
Dr. Kristalina Georgieva said AI is like a slow‑moving tsunami; in advanced economies it could boost growth by about 3%, while aging societies create a 1% drag that AI growth could offset. She observed that AI is already underway, with rising demand and investment even in low‑growth countries, mainly through data‑center and AI‑related spending. Supply‑chain analysis shows the United States, China and India as the three primary beneficiaries, with many other countries, including Thailand, gaining from AI infrastructure.
She warned that while advanced‑economy growth could reach around 3%, the figure is tempered by energy‑crisis pressures and represents only the beginning; the next wave of AI will be broad‑based, making participation more democratic. To ensure a fair transition, governments must guarantee access to electricity, digital infrastructure and protect citizens.
Looking ahead, Dr. Georgieva noted uncertainty but suggested that in Asia advanced economies might grow 0.5‑1% from AI, emerging markets 0.2‑0.8%, and many countries entering aging societies rapidly; a 1% AI‑driven growth could offset or exceed this drag.
She also highlighted labor‑market impacts: global job losses could reach 40%, up to 60% in some countries, and 23% in low‑income nations, with some regions seeing limited Small AI adoption. A U.S. study found that over 10% of jobs now require AI skills for higher pay, while repetitive tasks decline and low‑pay jobs in construction, data centers and services rise—jobs that often do not offer career progression, leaving new workers reluctant to start in such roles.
To address these challenges, she urged three actions: first, study labor‑market effects carefully; second, provide AI‑appropriate education and lifelong learning; third, consider fiscal space, as tax revenues depend on labor, and a shift toward capital could reduce the tax base, requiring new ways to fund public needs and help society adapt to AI.
