Thai Stock Market Expected to Trade Between 1,600-1,650 Points This Week
The Thai stock market is expected to trade sideways between 1,600–1,650 points this week, supported by a Constitutional Court ruling allowing state investment projects and rising consumer confidence despite geopolitical tensions.
Gloebel Securities (GBS) estimates the Thai stock market will trade sideways within a 1,600–1,650-point range this week, despite headwinds from renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and U.S. interest rate movements. However, the market is supported by multiple positive factors, particularly a 7–2 Constitutional Court ruling that the 400-billion-baht borrowing decree does not violate the constitution, allowing state investment projects to proceed. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose in June for the first time in four months, signaling that consumers are easing worries about the international situation and benefiting from the "Thai Helps Thai Plus 60/40" stimulus measure, which boosts domestic spending.
Further positive news includes the Board of Investment's approval of Nestlé's investment project worth over 23 billion baht to build a new coffee factory in Thailand, reinforcing confidence in Thailand as a global manufacturing hub. On the foreign side, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, below analyst expectations, and China has relaxed restrictions on technology imports by allowing AI companies limited access to Nvidia's H200 chips.
Investors should closely monitor risk factors, including Middle East tensions following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) attack on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting, where CME FedWatch data shows 72.7% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75% in July and 63.5% probability of at least a 0.25% hike to 3.75–4.00% in September. The CP Group has also sent a letter to Thai Railways requesting termination rights for the high-speed train contract.
Key economic indicators to watch include Thailand's international trade data and vehicle production and export figures in the fourth week of July, industrial production index in the fifth week, and the Bank of Thailand's economic and financial report on July 31, with a Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for August. Internationally, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Powell will testify on monetary policy to Congress on July 14–15, while the U.S. will release critical economic data including business confidence, employment, inflation (CPI/PPI), manufacturing, oil inventories, retail sales, housing market data, and existing home sales contracts between July 14–16. The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for July 28–29.
