Consumer Confidence Rises For First Time in Four Months

The Thai Chamber of Commerce has reported that the June 2025 consumer confidence index improved to 50.7 from 49.5, marking its first gain in four months. According to Thanavorn Plaveechai, rector and advisor to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at Thamasart University's affiliated chamber, consumers have grown less anxious about Middle East tensions following a ceasefire agreement between the United States, Israel, and Iran, while oil prices have begun stabilizing. The government's Thailand Helps Thailand Plus economic stimulus program has also had a positive psychological effect and boosted purchasing power.

However, the business confidence index fell for a fourth consecutive month to 41.4, as stimulus funds have not yet translated into improved sales for businesses. Employment remains low, and economic recovery has been uneven, with growth concentrated in AI and electronics sectors rather than spreading to small and medium enterprises. "Consumer confidence shows positive awareness of the stimulus program with increased purchasing power, but business operators have yet to see tangible benefits from the monthly 50 billion baht stimulus injection," Thanavorn said.

If Middle East tensions do not intensify, the government continues the stimulus for four months, and energy restructuring proceeds as planned, purchasing power could strengthen considerably, potentially driving full-year growth above 2%, Thanavorn predicted. Even if the U.S. escalates strikes on Iran without major military involvement, oil prices should remain below $80 per barrel, supporting growth at the forecast 2-2.5% rate. However, if prolonged conflict erupts with intensive mutual attacks, crude oil could spike to $90-110 per barrel, potentially limiting Thailand's growth to 1.5-2% for the year.