Revenue Dept's Outbound Tax Plan Hits Thai Tourism Stocks
Asia Plus says the Revenue Department’s proposal to charge 1,000 baht per outbound flight could dent short‑term confidence in Thai tourism stocks. The fee would add roughly 1,450 baht to the cost of a typical overseas trip, though analysts expect the impact on travel demand and hotel occupancy to be modest. The measure is still under public consultation and would take years to implement, if approved.
Asia Plus warns that confidence in tourism stocks has dipped due to the Revenue Department's plan to levy an outbound travel tax. The ASPS research unit says a proposed 1,000‑baht charge per outbound flight could pressure tourism‑related shares in the short term as travelers worry about higher costs, though the actual impact on earnings will depend on whether the legislation is passed and implemented. The Revenue Department is accepting public comments on the draft law from September 30 to October 29, 2026, proposing to collect the fee from all international outbound air passengers at 1,000 baht per trip, with a legal ceiling of 5,000 baht. The agency notes that enforcement may take time, citing the inbound tourism fee that was legislated in 2019 but is not set to take effect until 2027. If the outbound tax is implemented, foreign tourists would face an additional cost of about 1,450 baht per trip when combined with the existing 450‑baht tourism fee, representing roughly 3 % of an average 48,000‑baht trip expense (excluding airfare). For long‑haul travelers the impact would be even smaller because the fee is a lower proportion of total travel costs. Collecting the charge via airline tickets may not raise the fare paid by passengers by the full amount, as airlines use flexible pricing, discount fares and fare‑class management. AOT may suffer from a drop in Thai outbound travelers; low‑cost carriers are more exposed than full‑service airlines. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Thai outbound passenger numbers fall by 10 %, AOT’s total international passenger forecast could decline by 1‑2 %. Low‑cost airlines such as Asia Aviation (AAV) would feel the fixed 1,000‑baht fee more acutely than full‑service carriers like Thai Airways (THAI) and Bangkok Airways (BA) because it represents a larger share of their ticket prices. Despite the short‑term pressure on sentiment, Asia Plus remains optimistic about the tourism sector, highlighting CENTEL, ERW and AOT as stocks to watch.
